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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 62

New England Patriots 27 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(12:36) 6-R.Allen punts 38 yards to TEN 24, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.16 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 62, worth -3.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 21, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model