4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 80

New England Patriots 27 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(7:11) 6-R.Allen punts 37 yards to TEN 43, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.46 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 80, worth -4.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 37, worth -1.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model