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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 17 at the 37

Carolina Panthers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(1:52) 8-B.Nortman punts 36 yards to ATL 1, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-21-T.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.39 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 37, worth -1.79 EP
KICK +0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 46, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.79 EP