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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 11 at the 25

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(8:27) 6-S.Graham 43 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.19 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model