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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 29

Carolina Panthers 10 – Atlanta Falcons 14

What Actually Happened

(8:04) 9-G.Gano 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.20 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 29, worth -1.39 EP
KICK +1.08 EP
What Happened
  • 78% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 39, worth -1.87 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP