4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 63

Carolina Panthers 13 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(1:53) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short left to 88-G.Olsen.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.57 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 63, worth -1.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model