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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 36

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Carolina Panthers 13

What Actually Happened

(1:35) 6-S.Graham 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +1.37 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.53 EP
KICK +0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 46, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model