4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 44

Carolina Panthers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(11:17) 8-B.Nortman punts 31 yards to ATL 13, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 17-D.Hester.

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.51 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 44, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -0.92 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model