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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 11 at the 27

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(2:31) 2-M.Nugent 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.92 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 27, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.56 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 37, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model