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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 5

Denver Broncos 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(:18) 8-B.McManus 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +2.44 EP
  • 35% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.87 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 5, worth +0.06 EP
KICK +2.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.92 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.07 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model