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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 75

Denver Broncos 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 4-B.Colquitt punts 37 yards to CIN 38, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-B.Tate pushed ob at CIN 45 for 7 yards (33-S.Keo).

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.47 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 75, worth -4.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 32, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model