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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 76

Denver Broncos 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(13:45) 4-B.Colquitt punts 54 yards to CIN 22, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-B.Tate to CIN 19 for -3 yards (36-K.Webster).

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.11 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 76, worth -4.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 34, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP