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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 19 at the 55

Denver Broncos 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(3:52) 4-B.Colquitt punts 46 yards to CIN 9, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-B.Tate to CIN 10 for 1 yard (48-S.Barrett).

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.82 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 55, worth -2.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT +0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 16, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model