Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 68

Buffalo Bills 6 – Dallas Cowboys 6

(13:31) 6-C.Schmidt punts 49 yards to DAL 19, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.50 EP
66% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 68, worth -3.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model