Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 75

Dallas Cowboys 6 – Buffalo Bills 6

(12:01) 6-C.Jones punts 45 yards to BUF 30, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.26 EP
53% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 75, worth -4.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model