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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 14

Buffalo Bills 6 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(6:21) 2-D.Carpenter 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +1.68 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.86 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +2.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model