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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 44

Dallas Cowboys 6 – Buffalo Bills 9

What Actually Happened

(14:06) 6-C.Jones punts 32 yards to BUF 12, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-38-J.Heath.

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.21 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 44, worth -2.28 EP
KICK -1.07 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP