4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 72

Buffalo Bills 9 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(11:51) 6-C.Schmidt punts 45 yards to DAL 27, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 31 for 4 yards (27-D.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.57 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 72, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.33 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 30, worth -1.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model