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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 32

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(2:49) 5-D.Bailey 50 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.20 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 32, worth -1.98 EP
KICK +0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 42, worth -2.61 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model