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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 75

Tennessee Titans 0 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(5:44) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 60 yards to HOU 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 12-K.Mumphery pushed ob at HOU 35 for 20 yards (59-W.Woodyard).

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.55 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 75, worth -4.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 32, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model