Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 55

Tennessee Titans 0 – Houston Texans 17

(1:43) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 45 yards to HOU 10, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 12-K.Mumphery pushed ob at HOU 13 for 3 yards (37-C.Riggs).

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.84 EP
70% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 55, worth -2.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model