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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 40

Tennessee Titans 0 – Houston Texans 17

What Actually Happened

(:53) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 29 yards to HOU 11, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 12-K.Mumphery.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.65 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 40, worth -1.55 EP
KICK -0.24 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.13 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model