Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 81

Tennessee Titans 0 – Houston Texans 31

(5:45) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 47 yards to HOU 34, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.82 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.42 EP
69% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 81, worth -4.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model