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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 65

Tennessee Titans 0 – Houston Texans 34

What Actually Happened

(8:43) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 59 yards to HOU 6, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 12-K.Mumphery pushed ob at HOU 13 for 7 yards (16-T.McBride).

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.90 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 65, worth -3.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.08 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 23, worth -1.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model