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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 80

Houston Texans 34 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(7:07) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 53 yards to TEN 27, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 83-H.Douglas.

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.99 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 80, worth -4.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.86 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 37, worth -1.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP