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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 75

Houston Texans 34 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(3:51) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 53 yards to TEN 22, Center-46-J.Weeks. 83-H.Douglas to TEN 30 for 8 yards (46-J.Weeks).

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.93 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 75, worth -4.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 32, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model