4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 1

Tennessee Titans 0 – Houston Texans 34

What Actually Happened

(1:35) (Shotgun) 7-Z.Mettenberger pass short left to 16-T.McBride for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.25 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 1, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.25 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model