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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 9

New York Giants 0 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(8:27) (Field Goal formation) 3-J.Brown 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-D.Aiken, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +1.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.03 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 9, worth -0.33 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP