Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 17 at the 73

New York Giants 3 – Minnesota Vikings 16

What Actually Happened

(1:14) (Punt formation) 57-D.Aiken to NYG 14 for -13 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by NYG-9-B.Wing at NYG 14. 9-B.Wing punts 30 yards to MIN 43, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.00 EP
72% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 73, worth -3.96 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model