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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 78

New York Giants 3 – Minnesota Vikings 19

What Actually Happened

(12:53) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 41 yards to MIN 37, Center-57-D.Aiken. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 38 for 1 yard (54-J.Casillas).

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.04 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 78, worth -4.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.18 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 35, worth -2.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model