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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 63

New York Giants 3 – Minnesota Vikings 29

What Actually Happened

(5:25) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 45 yards to MIN 18, Center-57-D.Aiken, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.89 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 63, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 21, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP