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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 14 at the 59

Minnesota Vikings 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(6:39) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 52 yards to NYG 7, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.19 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 59, worth -2.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 18, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model