4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 16 at the 86

New York Giants 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(4:01) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 40 yards to MIN 46, Center-57-D.Aiken, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -3.34 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.04 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 86, worth -5.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 44, worth -2.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model