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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 19

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(10:05) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.18 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.15 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.32 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model