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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 76

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Baltimore Ravens 13

What Actually Happened

(:38) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 42 yards to BAL 34, Center-60-G.Warren. 81-K.Clay to BAL 33 for -1 yards (29-S.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -1.78 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.76 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 76, worth -3.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 34, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model