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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 63

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(14:29) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 42 yards to PIT 21, Center-46-M.Cox. 84-A.Brown to PIT 21 for no gain (84-C.Matthews).

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.40 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model