Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 59

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Baltimore Ravens 13

(7:18) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 46 yards to BAL 13, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 81-K.Clay.

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.38 EP
66% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 59, worth -3.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model