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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 42

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(:37) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 33 yards to PIT 9, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-84-C.Matthews.

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +4.20 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 42, worth -1.37 EP
KICK +0.04 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +3.16 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.18 EP
PUNT +0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model