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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 44

Baltimore Ravens 20 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

What Actually Happened

(3:05) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.12 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 44, worth -1.62 EP
KICK -0.42 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.00 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP