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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 37

Baltimore Ravens 20 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

What Actually Happened

(:12) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 37 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +0.97 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 37, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 46, worth -0.48 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.39 EP