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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 10

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(13:00) 9-J.Tucker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.49 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.05 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 10, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model