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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 32

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(5:00) 9-J.Tucker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.12 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 32, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 42, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model