Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 62

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

(12:33) 10-K.Huber punts 47 yards to BAL 15, Center-46-C.Harris. 81-K.Clay to BAL 17 for 2 yards (30-C.Peerman).

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.78 EP
55% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 62, worth -3.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model