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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Cincinnati Bengals
4th & 1 at the 38
Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Baltimore Ravens 9
What Actually Happened
(7:05) 32-J.Hill left guard for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+1.71 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.56 EP
- 31% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 38, worth -2.32 EP
KICK
-0.51 EP
- 54% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
- 46% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 47, worth -3.36 EP
PUNT
-0.50 EP
- Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
