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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 27

Baltimore Ravens 9 – Cincinnati Bengals 21

What Actually Happened

(12:02) (Shotgun) 7-R.Mallett pass incomplete deep right to 11-K.Aiken.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
What Happened
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.41 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 27, worth -1.04 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 37, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.52 EP