4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 63

Cincinnati Bengals 21 – Baltimore Ravens 9

What Actually Happened

(9:46) 10-K.Huber punts 53 yards to BAL 10, Center-46-C.Harris. 81-K.Clay to BAL 10 for no gain (37-C.Lewis-Harris). PENALTY on BAL-44-K.Juszczyk, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 10.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.69 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 63, worth -3.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 21, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EP