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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 84

Baltimore Ravens 9 – Cincinnati Bengals 21

What Actually Happened

(8:40) 4-S.Koch punts 38 yards to CIN 46, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.75 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.35 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 84, worth -4.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 42, worth -1.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model