4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 13 at the 33

Cincinnati Bengals 21 – Baltimore Ravens 9

What Actually Happened

(4:11) 2-M.Nugent 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.10 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 33, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.67 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 43, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model