4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 12 at the 61

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(4:52) 10-K.Huber punts 43 yards to BAL 18, Center-46-C.Harris. 81-K.Clay to BAL 22 for 4 yards (46-C.Harris; 81-T.Kroft).

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.02 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 61, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 20, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model