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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 15 at the 46

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 4-S.Koch punts 42 yards to CIN 4, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds. [Ball batted by 17 J.Butler at the CIN 1; Out of bounds at CIN 4]

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.69 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 46, worth -2.87 EP
KICK -1.41 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 13, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model